Good afternoon and I hope that you all are having a good Sunday. A potentially dangerous situation is possible on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Indiana under a moderate risk of severe storms, with portions of northeast and extreme southwest Indiana under an enhanced risk of severe weather.
Not only is there a severe weather threat, but with ample moisture available and the excessive rain that the area has seen over the past few days, flash flooding is a concern, so Flash Flood Watches are in effect for much of Indiana from late tonight through late Monday night, with 1 to 2 inches of rain possible, with locally higher amounts.
The severe threat for Monday include all modes, including the threat of tornadoes. A stronger tornado is certainly not out of the question given the high to extreme instability in the atmosphere. In addition, very large hail, and damaging to destructive winds will also be possible. There could be multiple rounds of strong to severe storms during the day on Monday and in the slideshow below will show how the radar could look like starting at 6 am Monday. Keep in mind, as you are looking at simulated radar, this is off a model and the radar may not exactly look like this at the exact time.
Again, the timing and track of storms can change quickly. The first round will come during the morning hours, between 6 am and noon. There will be a lull and if the atmosphere can recover from the initial round of storms, then storms should begin to develop again around 2 or 3 in the afternoon. It will be these storms that could have the potential to become supercells and produce large hail, destructive winds, and tornadoes. There could be another lull in the activity before next round of storms begin to move southeast into the state by the mid to late evening hours. Widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadoes could be possible with the last round. Storms should begin to wind down between 2 and 4 am.
There's a lot that can change with this type of set up, but the atmospheric setup is there for tomorrow to be a very active day. Now is the time to get your plan of action ready to go in the event warnings are issued. Also with the recent heavy rains, strong winds and weaken soil can easily topple trees. Power outages are likely! Charge up your phones tonight and early tomorrow morning and be sure to keep abreast to changing weather conditions.
To summarize, there could be potentially three rounds of severe storms. Nothing is etched in stone and greatly depends on how the atmosphere recovers. If models do verify it could set up for a dangerous day and can not stress enough to have a plan of action ready and have a source of getting warnings, best way is a NOAA Weather Radio. There are apps for smartphones that you can download and get warnings. Local TV and radio will also have the latest information. You can follow me on Twitter @ECIndianawx for the latest weather information and like the Facebook page Central Indiana Weather. Remain weather aware!
Thoughts on major weather events, severe weather events, and/or changes to the company.