The Storm Prediction has placed much of Northern and Central Indiana under an enhanced risk of severe storms on Sunday. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including threat of tornadoes. Warm and humid airmass will also bring heavy rainfall that could lead to some flash flooding. Below is the severe weather threats and the timing of the arrival of severe storms.
For Northern Indiana, main threat will be damaging winds and large hail, which at this time I am putting at a 4. Flash flooding will be a concern for much of the state as heavy rain will fall with the moisture that will be in place. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible with any storms that surge ahead of the main line.
The area of the greatest risk of severe storms will be Central Indiana. Damaging winds I placed at a 7 and 6 for large hail. Best risk of tornadoes I think will be in Central Indiana as I put the threat at a 4. Southern Indiana, the severe threat will be much later in the evening into Monday morning, so I put the numbers the same as Northern Indiana.
Future Radar shows what could happen during the next 12 to 14 hours beginning at 2 pm. There may be a few showers during the early afternoon, otherwise I'm expecting much of Sunday to remain dry. Storms will begin to get going between 3 and 4 pm in Illinois as the line forms and moves to the east-southeast. By 5 pm, the line may begin to move into the far northwestern part of Indiana. Fast forwarding to 8 pm, the line of storms could possible be from Fort Wayne to South Bend and no to far away from Lafayette. The line if this model verifies will approach the Muncie, Anderson, Pendleton, Indy, and Terre Haute areas. Line continues to move east-southeast into early Monday morning. Heavy rain will also be possible as this line may slow down during this time and begin to gradually weaken. By 5 am, the rain may end for areas north of Indy, and the line as it approaches the Ohio River, will continue to weaken as the line moves away from the dynamics, but the heavy rain will continue. Additional storms may back build as low level jet will become parallel to the upper level low which will enhance the heavy rain threat. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated areas of 3 to 4 inches possible. I will continue monitor the situation tonight into Sunday. Have a great rest of your Saturday!
Thoughts on major weather events, severe weather events, and/or changes to the company.